The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. link 789bet to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an impression on the side or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win in case you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because more and more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.