There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. A great deal of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. SV66 media is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.