There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. 78WIN casino will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. A lot of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.