"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to fill in the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If https://new88nc.net/ covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."